UNH

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

HealthcareHealthcare PlansNASDAQ

$269.93

-$13.67 (-5.06%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$358.92

Upside+32.97%

Signal0

Market Cap$237.7B

52W Range$234.60–$606.36

Next EarningsApr 21

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 95% valid

Fair Value$535.70

Current Price$284.33

Upside / Down+88.4%

P(Undervalued)81.0%

P(20%+ Up)74.7%

P(15%+ Down)14.8%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

81.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-1.0%/yr

±10.5% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-7.7%/yr

±3.6% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates as a health care company in the United States and internationally.

Trailing P/E19.8x

Forward P/E13.1x

P/S0.5x

EPS (TTM)$13.24

Analyst Target$358.92

Analyst Upside33.0%

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10qFeb 28

Conviction: unchanged

UNH Q3 2025 10-Q: Systemic MCR Crisis, Earnings Halved, DOJ Shadow Looms

UNH's Q3 2025 filing reveals the worst earnings reset in the company's modern history. MCR hit 89.9% in Q3 (+470bps YoY), earnings from operations collapsed 50% to .3B, and EPS fell to .59 from .51. T...