SaaS mix at 68% driving margin expansion to 46.5%. Target $515 vs current $346 = +48.8% upside. Thesis intact: govtech SaaS at scale with durable moat. Missing: growth deceleration to 9% headline is a concern — need evidence of stabilization or acceleration.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
20.2%/yr
±5.4% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
10.9%/yr
±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
TYL 2025: 9% revenue growth, SaaS now 68% mix (+18%), gross margin 46.5% (+270bps), ARR +11%, client attrition 2%. Quality compounder transitioning to mature phase. Recurring revenue base strong (87%)...