72% drawdown from highs creates attractive risk/reward. Target $38 vs current $23.80 = +59.7% upside. CTV tailwinds confirmed by 10-K. DCF P(above)=20% — borderline but drawdown magnitude + CTV secular thesis justifies lean-buy over neutral. Missing: evidence of revenue growth reacceleration.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
20.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
21.0%/yr
±6.8% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
3.3%/yr
±2.6% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Leading independent DSP with strong CTV positioning and AI capabilities. 72% drawdown from highs creates attractive entry. Key risks: customer concentration, macro sensitivity, competition. Secular ta...