TSLA

Tesla, Inc.

Consumer CyclicalAuto ManufacturersNASDAQ

$385.73

-$6.92 (-1.79%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$421.27

Upside+9.21%

Signal0

Market Cap$1.33T

52W Range$214.25–$498.83

Next EarningsApr 21

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$16.85

Current Price$395.56

Upside / Down-95.7%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

97.9%/yr

±1.9% · FCF growth to justify current price

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

Tesla, Inc.

Trailing P/E325.9x

Forward P/E126.4x

P/S14.1x

EPS (TTM)$1.09

Analyst Target$421.27

Analyst Upside9.2%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kFeb 28

Conviction: unchanged

Tesla FY2025 10-K: AI Optionality Priced In, Core Auto Under Pressure

FY2025 revenues fell 3% to $94.83B as vehicle deliveries declined to 1.64M. GAAP net income collapsed 46% to $3.79B ($1.08 EPS) while gross margins improved to ~20.1%. Cash surged to $44.06B; debt min...