DCF FV=$65 vs price $53.73, P(above)=85.4%, target $64 = 19% upside. Strong model conviction. Semiconductor (RF chips for Apple iPhone) depressed post-Apple supply chain diversification concerns. Trading below DCF FV is attractive. Missing: 19% upside just below 20% threshold and Apple share risk unresolved.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
87.9% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-4.8%/yr
±3.4% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-9.3%/yr
±2.2% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
SWKS Q1 FY2026: -3.1% revenue (customer loss offset by Wi-Fi gains), 41.3% gross margin (mix-pressure), operating margin collapsed 17%→10% due to +15% R&D investment in next-gen tech. Strong OCF .5M. ...