DCF FV=$238 vs price $153.23, P(above)=97.9% — strong model conviction. Beer segment (Modelo, Corona) dominant in US import market. Target $175 implies 14% upside — just below 20% threshold for 8. Stock has sold off from highs; macro/tariff concerns on Mexican production weigh.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-5.4%/yr
±2.9% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-4.7%/yr
±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Q3 FY2026: Beer resilient (-1% rev) but depletions weak (-3%). Tariffs costing $70M FY26. W&S restructured to premium-only. Consumer demand soft. Debt elevated at $10.7B.