STT

State Street Corporation

Financial ServicesAsset ManagementNASDAQ

$124.10

+$0.88 (0.71%)today

Conviction

4/ 10

Fair Value$144.30

Upside+16.28%

Signal6.51

Market Cap$34.5B

52W Range$72.81–$137.05

Next EarningsApr 17

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 5:04 PM6→4conviction-rescore

Target $40 is massively below current price $121.61 — either the target is wrong or the thesis is broken. DCF FV=$374 wildly diverges (data error likely). Structural NII headwinds and pricing pressure in custody. Cannot assign conv 6 with target implying -67% from current price. Flagging for full re-analysis.

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$457.33

Current Price$121.97

Upside / Down+275.0%

P(Undervalued)100.0%

P(20%+ Up)100.0%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Bull Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).

Bear Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 2

Conviction: unchanged

STT FY2025 10-K Analysis: Stable Custody Giant with Valuation Appeal

State Street 10-K shows mature custodian with .8T AUC/A but facing structural NII headwinds and pricing pressure. Capital ratios solid, but growth limited. Fair value -42 range with hold recommendatio...