Stock up 48% from 52w low. Was bullish at $62-70; that trade is done. At $91.66, 10% upside to analyst mean doesn't compensate for unquantified SoCalGas LA Fires litigation and 53% debt/cap. Oncor growth is real but known to market. KKR deal mostly in price. Downgrading from 6 to 5 — hold don't add.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
33.1%/yr
±5.4% · revenue growth to justify current price
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
FY2025 adj EPS $4.69 (+1% YoY). 2026 guidance $4.80-$5.30. 2030 outlook $6.70-$7.50 (8% CAGR). $65B 5yr capex plan (95% regulated TX/CA). KKR deal ($10B for 45% SI Partners) expected Q2-Q3 2026. Major...
SRE at $91.66 has rallied ~45% from 52w low on trough-year clarity + KKR deal + Oncor growth. Forward PE 16.6x on $5.52 consensus is reasonable but not cheap. Analyst mean $101.50 is 10% upside — insu...
SRE FY2025 was a messy year: EPS dropped from $4.42 to $2.75 due to one-time hits (GRC disallowances $432M, $703M deferred tax from SI Partners held-for-sale reclassification). Stripping those out, th...
Sempra 2025: Regulated utility stalwart undermined by bloated infrastructure portfolio. California utilities stable (SDG&E/SoCalGas 5-6% EPS growth), but SI Partners impairment cascade looming. SI inf...