SPG

Simon Property Group, Inc.

Real EstateREIT - RetailNASDAQ

$182.37

-$7.24 (-3.97%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$206.30

Upside+13.12%

Signal0

Market Cap$59.3B

52W Range$136.34–$205.12

Next EarningsMay 11

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$68.46

Current Price$184.52

Upside / Down-62.9%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

23.2%/yr

±3.9% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

24.5%/yr

±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

Simon Property Group, Inc.

Trailing P/E12.9x

Forward P/E26.4x

P/S9.3x

EPS (TTM)$14.16

Analyst Target$206.30

Analyst Upside13.1%

No Eagle analysis yet. Request a full review including conviction score, bull/bear cases, and thesis.

Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 2

Conviction: unchanged

SPG 10-K 2025: Execution Solid, But Macro Headwinds & Leverage Present Risk

SPG trades near fair value with execution intact but leverage + macro headwinds require tighter dividend monitoring. Rated HOLD pending Q1 guidance and refinancing visibility.