Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
26.7%/yr
±6.8% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
32.1%/yr
±3.6% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of coffee internationally.
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Q1 FY2026 shows real comp momentum (+4% global, +4% US, +5% International) but severe margin compression (-290bps to 9.0% operating margin). North America margins collapsed -480bps to 11.9% from Nicco...