DCF P(above)=1.3%, FV=$122 vs current ~$320+. Stock significantly above DCF FV. Pool Corporation: dominant pool supply distributor but highly cyclical. Pool construction and renovation demand fell sharply from COVID boom peak. Inventory normalization largely complete but replacement demand weak. At current multiples, priced for recovery that isn't materializing. Concerns outweigh positives at this valuation.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
2.1% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
10.3%/yr
±7.0% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
22.5%/yr
±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
POOL 2025 10-K shows post-pandemic normalization with flat revenue, stable gross margin, but declining operating income. Maintenance products resilient; new construction and remodeling under pressure ...