DCF P(above)=2.9%, FV=$28 vs current ~$110+. Stock at ~4x DCF FV. Pinnacle West/APS: Arizona regulated utility. Regulatory environment has been difficult — rate case outcomes below expectations, customer growth strong but capex recovery uncertain. At $110 vs DCF $28, even with utility premium to DCF (regulated returns stabilize model), this gap is too large. Rising rates hurt utility valuations directly. Lean avoid bordering on avoid.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
13.5% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
14.7%/yr
±10.2% · revenue growth to justify current price
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
PNW is a vertically integrated, regulated Arizona utility with stable earnings, strong asset base (Palo Verde nuclear), and clean energy transition underway. Load growth accelerating (5.3% YoY) from d...