DCF P(above)=0.7%, FV=$106 vs current ~$210. Stock at 2x DCF FV. Packaging Corporation: corrugated containerboard, strong market position but commodity-linked earnings. Capex-intensive expansion (new mill in Jackson, AL) creating near-term earnings dilution. At $210 vs DCF $106, this is priced significantly above intrinsic value. Packaging cycle turning down adds headwind. Lean avoid.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
1.5% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
16.6%/yr
±7.9% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
16.4%/yr
±3.2% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
PKG: 3rd largest North American containerboard producer. FY2025 EBITDA ex-special items grew 13.7% to ,862M on pricing power (+/ton March 2026), though integration of .8B Greif acquisition just begun....