PGR

The Progressive Corporation

Financial ServicesInsurance - Property & CasualtyNASDAQ

$202.70

+$1.54 (0.76%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$232.29

Upside+14.60%

Signal0

Market Cap$118.0B

52W Range$197.92–$289.96

Next EarningsApr 15

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$646.40

Current Price$206.00

Upside / Down+213.8%

P(Undervalued)100.0%

P(20%+ Up)100.0%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-6.5%/yr

±3.2% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-16.9%/yr

±1.7% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States.

Trailing P/E10.5x

Forward P/E12.5x

P/S1.3x

EPS (TTM)$19.23

Analyst Target$232.29

Analyst Upside14.6%

No Eagle analysis yet. Request a full review including conviction score, bull/bear cases, and thesis.

Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 1

Conviction: unchanged

PGR Q3 2025 10-Q: Exceptional Underwriting at Scale, Florida Overhang Clears in 2026

Progressive delivered best-in-class underwriting in Q3 2025 despite a M one-time Florida policyholder credit that obscures the true earnings power. Ex-credit, Q3 combined ratio was ~85% — elite. Net p...