No DCF P(above) data; DCF FV=$28 vs target $49 but current price unclear. ON Semiconductor: EV/industrial power semiconductor exposure, but EV adoption pace disappointing and inventory digestion ongoing across auto/industrial customers. Revenue declining, margins compressing. Without DCF support and with clear demand headwinds, concerns outweigh positives. Would not initiate at current levels.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
15.0%/yr
±4.6% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
13.5%/yr
±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
ON navigating through the automotive inventory trough while AI data center revenue accelerates. SiC/GaN moat intact. B buyback signals management conviction. Key inflection: auto stabilization + AI da...
Restructuring-driven margin expansion offset by AI TAM and ISG decline risks. SiC/GaN moats strong, but valuation already reflects recovery benefits. Fair value -52; conviction 6/10.