NRG

NRG Energy, Inc.
UtilitiesUtilities - Independent Power ProducersNASDAQ
$151.20
-$7.52 (-4.97%)today
Conviction
0/ 10
Fair Value$201.94
Upside+33.56%
Signal0
Market Cap$30.0B
52W Range$79.57–$189.96
Next EarningsMay 11

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 97% valid
Fair Value$111.08
Current Price$145.80
Upside / Down-23.8%
P(Undervalued)27.6%
P(20%+ Up)14.0%
P(15%+ Down)58.9%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

27.6% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

7.8%/yr

±9.7% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

42.0%/yr

±3.7% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and home services company in the United States and Canada.

Trailing P/E35.3x
Forward P/E12.2x
P/S1.0x
EPS (TTM)$4
Analyst Target$201.94
Analyst Upside33.6%

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 2
Conviction: unchanged
NRG Energy 2025 10-K: Vertically Integrated Consolidator Strengthened by LSP Acquisition

NRG Energy completed LSP Portfolio acquisition (13 GW nat gas), strengthening vertical integration thesis. Texas development projects (1.5 GW) supported by TEF subsidies. Retail customer base stable; ...