Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
27.6% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
7.8%/yr
±9.7% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
42.0%/yr
±3.7% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and home services company in the United States and Canada.
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NRG Energy completed LSP Portfolio acquisition (13 GW nat gas), strengthening vertical integration thesis. Texas development projects (1.5 GW) supported by TEF subsidies. Retail customer base stable; ...