Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
4.2% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
10.2%/yr
±7.9% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
13.6%/yr
±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
NIKE, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and sells athletic and casual footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories, and services for men, women, and kids in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Greater China, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.
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NKE Q2 FY2026 (ended Nov 30, 2025): Revenue flat at .4B (+1% reported, 0% currency-neutral). Gross margin compressed 300bps to 40.6%, primarily driven by ~.5B annualized tariff impact in North America...