NCLH

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.

Consumer CyclicalTravel ServicesNASDAQ

$18.18

-$1.75 (-9.64%)today

Conviction

4/ 10

Fair Value$26.25

Upside+44.39%

Signal17.76

Market Cap$8.0B

52W Range$14.21–$27.18

Next EarningsApr 30

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 3:10 PM6→4conviction-rescore

DCF P(above)=0.2%, FV=$5 vs current ~$26. Model says stock is massively overvalued by 5x. Norwegian Cruise Line: leverage remains elevated post-COVID (~$13B debt), consumer discretionary spending under pressure from inflation, and cruise pricing/capacity growth creating yield headwinds. The DCF is damning — if you believe normalized earnings reflect debt load, this is a bad bet. No thesis for holding against this signal.

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 97% valid

Fair Value$14.27

Current Price$18.95

Upside / Down-24.7%

P(Undervalued)27.0%

P(20%+ Up)13.8%

P(15%+ Down)59.4%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

27.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

18.1%/yr

±8.4% · revenue growth to justify current price

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Bull Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).

Bear Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

Q3 2025 10-Q: Occupancy Decline Signals Demand Deceleration Despite Revenue Growth

NCLH occupancy declining despite revenue growth, signaling demand softening. Leverage elevated at 7.5x ND/EBITDA; debt maturity wall 2026-2027 dependent on capital markets. Unhedged euro exposure on $...