7→5: Price at $466.61 vs $470 target — essentially AT our target. Analyst consensus -8.6% (negative upside from current). DCF FV $71 vs $466 current price = 85% DCF downside. HBM thesis may be priced in or target stale. Earnings today is a binary event, not a predictable upside catalyst. Risk/reward inverted at current price. Would need a significant pullback to re-enter with proper asymmetry. Downgrading to 5 (Lean Avoid) — thesis not broken, but price action has eliminated the edge.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
96.3%/yr
±3.4% · FCF growth to justify current price
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Q2 FY2026 earnings Wed Mar 18 — 97% probability of beat per prediction markets. Guidance: $18.7B revenue, $8.42 non-GAAP EPS. HBM 2026 fully booked. Taiwan fab acquisition ($1.8B) closed mid-March. Bu...
Blowout quarter — revenue +57% YoY to $13.6B, gross margins exploding to 56% from 38% a year ago, net income $5.24B. CMBU (cloud/HBM) segment doubled YoY. Rapid debt paydown, $12B cash pile. YMTC liti...