Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
90.7% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-4.2%/yr
±2.9% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-11.0%/yr
±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States.
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MO delivered 4.4% adjusted EPS growth (.19→.42) but fell short of its mid-single digit CAGR goal (3.6% 3yr CAGR). NJOY ACE banned from US market via ITC patent ruling, triggering ~.9B impairment. Ciga...