DCF P(above)=67.7%, FV=$45 vs current ~$38. Solid DCF support. MGM thesis: dominant Las Vegas Strip operator + BetMGM online gaming optionality. Macro tailwind from recovering Asian VIP and return of conventions/groups. Price at discount to DCF FV. Missing element: BetMGM path to profitability needs confirmation — online gaming segment still burning cash.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
83.3% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-1.4%/yr
±7.6% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
23.2%/yr
±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
MGM 2025 10-K shows domestic recovery, Macau stabilizing, strategic clarity on Japan/digital/UAE growth. Balance sheet leveraged; execution risk on 2026 labor and Macau concession terms. Premium brand...