DCF P(above current)=0.9% with FV=$71 vs target $155. Model says stock is significantly overvalued. Mid-America Apartment: Sunbelt apartment REIT in a supply-surge environment. New unit deliveries across Charlotte, Atlanta, Austin, etc. crushing rent growth. Revenue growth decelerating, occupancy under pressure, and rising cap rates compress NAV. No near-term catalyst to reverse oversupply.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
9.7% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
7.3%/yr
±4.1% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
10.9%/yr
±3.2% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Stabilized multifamily REIT with 301 communities (102.8k units). FY2025: steady acquisition/disposal activity, $272M development capex, 5,995 unit renovations achieving 7% rent lift. Portfolio well-po...