MA

Mastercard Incorporated

Financial ServicesCredit ServicesNASDAQ

$501.92

+$13.82 (2.75%)today

Conviction

7/ 10

Fair Value$661.12

Upside+31.72%

Signal22.2

Market Cap$440.9B

52W Range$465.59–$601.77

Next EarningsApr 30

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$371.64

Current Price$496.32

Upside / Down-25.1%

P(Undervalued)2.7%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)80.1%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

2.7% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

19.0%/yr

±3.9% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

12.5%/yr

±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Bull Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).

Bear Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).

Research Feed

analysisMar 30

Conviction: unchanged

MA — Conviction Synthesis: Payment Duopoly + VAS Re-rating = High-Quality Compounder

MA is a high-conviction compounder at $494. Near-duopoly payment rail + VAS/AI re-rating + 33% upside to consensus ($660). 47% net margins, $14.5B OCF, 16% revenue CAGR. Primary risk: interchange/Durb...

sec_10kFeb 28

Conviction: unchanged

Mastercard FY2025 10-K: Digital Payment Compounder Firing on All Cylinders

MA delivered 16% revenue and net income growth in FY2025 with .8B revenue and .0B net income. GDV of $10.6T grew 15% (local currency). Exceptional cash generation ($14.5B from ops), aggressive capital...