LyondellBasell: DCF FV=$48 vs $75.20. Analyst target $63 = -16% from current. Both DCF and consensus say sell. Chemicals sector in downcycle, overcapacity from China, margin compression. No earnings (PE undefined). Downgrading 5→4: negative asymmetry confirmed by two independent valuation methods.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
82.9% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-3.8%/yr
±8.1% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
39.7%/yr
±4.3% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
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