Alliant Energy: DCF FV=$59 vs current $71.76 — overvalued per model, P(above)=25.9%. Only 5% analyst upside. Regulated utility with modest growth, low risk/low reward. At a premium to fair value with no catalyst. Rate-sensitive in a still-elevated rate environment. Downgrading 5→4: fee compression on regulated returns, negative asymmetry.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
81.3% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
0.6%/yr
±4.1% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
4.8%/yr
±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Alliant Energy: regulated Midwest utility with 1M+ customers. Modest 9.6% electric revenue growth. IPL facing rate moratorium through 2029 limiting near-term recovery. Renewable generation buildout on...