KeyCorp: DCF FV=$19 ≈ current $19.07 (fairly valued per model, P(above)=52.7%). Above 200dma. 29% analyst upside to $25. Regional bank with rate sensitivity — if Fed cuts, NIM improves. Thesis: rate normalization beneficiary with clean balance sheet. Missing catalyst timing. Neutral-to-positive but no clear entry edge at current price. Upgrading 5→6.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
67.8% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
13.7%/yr
±5.5% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
2.9%/yr
±2.6% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
KeyCorp 10-K shows a classic late-cycle regional bank—exposed to CRE stress, NIM compression, and intensifying competition. Limited upside; downside risks elevated.