ITW

Illinois Tool Works Inc.

IndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachineryNASDAQ

$267.01

+$6.42 (2.40%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$280.63

Upside+5.10%

Signal0

Market Cap$73.8B

52W Range$214.66–$303.16

Next EarningsApr 29

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$94.89

Current Price$259.04

Upside / Down-63.4%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

22.9%/yr

±5.0% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

21.8%/yr

±3.2% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

Illinois Tool Works Inc.

Trailing P/E24.4x

Forward P/E21.1x

P/S4.6x

EPS (TTM)$10.49

Analyst Target$280.63

Analyst Upside5.1%

No Eagle analysis yet. Request a full review including conviction score, bull/bear cases, and thesis.

Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 1

Conviction: unchanged

ITW 2025: Margin mastery amid growth stasis

ITW delivers textbook operational execution: +130bps margin expansion from 80/20 process despite zero organic growth. Automotive OEM and Specialty outperform. NA geography weak. ROIC 29% but declining...