Current $45 is 3.75x DCF FV $12. Prior conviction noted 18A validation and agentic AI inference thesis developing. However, INTC is still burning cash, margins negative, and the $45 price embeds significant execution success. The thesis is interesting but paying 3.75x DCF FV for a turnaround that hasnt yet shown earnings power is speculative, not conviction.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
23.2%/yr
±5.3% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
50.7%/yr
±3.9% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Intel executing 5-node roadmap with 18A in HVM. Agentic AI creating surprise CPU demand tailwind. Foundry losses the key risk. Conviction 6: real option value on process recovery but execution uncerta...
Intel FY2025: revenue .9B (flat), gross margin 34.8% (improving), operating loss narrowed to -.2B from -.7B. Intel 18A entered high-volume production, NVIDIA paid B for strategic stake at $23.28/share...