Current $18, prior target $24 = 32% upside. DCF FV $72 is suspect — gross margins compressed 140bps to 19.6%, printing division declining -2.2%, and PC refresh tailwind is cyclical not structural. The 99.6% P(above) likely reflects auto-generated DCF assumptions that dont capture secular printing decline. Personal Systems growth is real but insufficient to offset core deterioration.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-6.9%/yr
±6.5% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-7.0%/yr
±2.3% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Revenue and FCF growth expectations are aligned
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
HPQ Q1 FY2026 shows revenue growth (+6.9%) offset by 1.4pp gross margin compression from commodity inflation and tariffs. Personal Systems strong (+11.1%) on PC refresh; Printing weak (-2.2%). Fiscal ...