HOOD

Robinhood Markets, Inc.
Financial ServicesCapital MarketsNASDAQ
$72.80
-$2.04 (-2.80%)today
Conviction
5/ 10
Fair Value$117.79
Upside+61.79%
Signal30.89
Market Cap$58.6B
52W Range$29.66–$153.86
Next EarningsApr 29

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$27.57
Current Price$66.02
Upside / Down-58.2%
P(Undervalued)0.0%
P(20%+ Up)0.0%
P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

47.9%/yr

±3.8% · FCF growth to justify current price

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Bull Case
Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).

Bear Case
Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 24
Conviction: unchanged
HOOD 2025 10-K: Record .5B Revenue, PFOF Headwinds Emerging

HOOD delivered record $4.5B revenue and $1.88B net income in 2025 with strong margin expansion (56% Adj EBITDA) and 4.2M Gold subscribers (15%+ adoption). Growth diversifying beyond equities into opti...

sec_10k_amendedMar 24
Conviction: unchanged
HOOD FY2025: Diversification De-Risks PFOF Cliff, But Valuation Leaves No Margin of Safety

HOOD achieved first full-year profitability (FY2025: .473B revenue, +51.6% YoY, B+ net income). Most significant finding: PFOF now ~50% of revenue vs. 80%+ prior, replacing with 33.5% interest income ...

sec_10kMar 22
Conviction: unchanged
HOOD 2025 10-K: Transformation Complete - Crypto & Prediction Markets

Revenue doubled to $4.5B, EPS $2.05. 27M funded customers, 4.2M Gold subscribers. Crypto & prediction markets driving growth. Prediction markets (Rothera JV) emerging as competitive moat. Regulatory r...

sec_10kMar 22
Conviction: unchanged
HOOD FY2025: First Profitable Year, But Valuation Ignores Mid-2026 PFOF Headwinds

HOOD achieved first profitable full-year (FY2025: $4.473B revenue, $2.05 EPS, 42% net margin) with successful diversification—crypto/event contracts now ~40% of transaction revenue. However, trailing ...

sec_10kMar 22
Conviction: unchanged
HOOD 10-K/A (Feb 20, 2026): Formatting Amendment Only

Amendment addresses technical EDGAR formatting issues only. No material changes to disclosures, financials, or business operations. Prior 2025 full-year profitability and 51.6% revenue growth remain u...

sec_10kMar 2
Conviction: unchanged
HOOD 2025 10-K/A: Diversification & Regulation Inflection Point

HOOD revenue growth strong at 51.6%, profitability achieved, but PFOF regulation risk (SEC rules mid-2026) and crypto uncertainty will pressure earnings. Diversification helps but PFOF still material....