GRMN

Garmin Ltd.

TechnologyScientific & Technical InstrumentsNASDAQ

$244.93

+$14.09 (5.75%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$260.25

Upside+6.25%

Signal0

Market Cap$43.5B

52W Range$169.26–$261.69

Next EarningsApr 29

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$196.01

Current Price$230.16

Upside / Down-14.8%

P(Undervalued)16.4%

P(20%+ Up)2.1%

P(15%+ Down)49.5%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

16.4% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

15.2%/yr

±4.8% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

18.0%/yr

±3.2% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

Garmin Ltd.

Trailing P/E26.3x

Forward P/E22.2x

P/S6.0x

EPS (TTM)$8.58

Analyst Target$260.25

Analyst Upside6.3%

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 2

Conviction: unchanged

FY2025 Revenue Acceleration Driven by Fitness Strength; Auto OEM Drag Persistent

FY2025 revenue +15% to .25B led by fitness (+33%), but deceleration vs FY2024. Margins stable. Auto OEM remains unprofitable. Strong cash generation. Taiwan concentration risk. Recommend HOLD—growth r...