DCF P(above)=0.2%, FV=$33 vs price $54.8 — trading 66% above DCF. PE=34.5x for industrial tech. Analyst target $62.5 (14% upside) but DCF strongly disagrees. Above 200dma. Fortive industrial instrumentation — no AI tailwind narrative at this valuation. DCF at 0.2% P(above) is almost screaming overvalued.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.2% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
8.4%/yr
±4.2% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
6.1%/yr
±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
FTV post-separation 10-K shows resilient pricing (+2.2%) offsetting volume decline (-0.6%). Operating margin compressed 30bps to 17.3%. Key concern: AHS segment weakening due to healthcare policy head...