FOXA

Fox Corporation
Communication ServicesEntertainmentNASDAQ
$58.93
+$1.70 (2.88%)today
Conviction
7/ 10
Fair Value$71
Upside+20.48%
Signal14.34
Market Cap$25.2B
52W Range$46.42–$76.39
Next EarningsMay 11

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 9:07 PM57conviction-rescore

Same entity as FOX — Fox Corp Class A voting shares. DCF P(above)=100%, FV=$378 vs price $57.7. PE=13.8x. Analyst target $71.7 (24% upside). Below 200dma. Voting shares add governance optionality. Same thesis as FOX: cheap cable/streaming value play, Tubi growing, cord-cutting risk the bear. Analyst target supports 24% upside.

Mar 17, 2026, 5:04 AM65sec-read

Cable segment validates thesis: distribution +4%, EBITDA +5.8% H1 confirms pricing power resilient. BUT: TV segment EBITDA collapsed -6.1% H1 (-30% in Q2 alone) — sports cost inflation is structural, not transient. FOX One (launched Aug 2025) burning cash faster (-M H1 vs -M prior) signals streaming strategy underperforming. Cash dropped .4B→.0B from massive ASR buyback + normal FCF usage. Interest expense stable but equity investment losses (-M H1 Flutter mark-to-market) erode earnings. Core cable moat intact, but TV profitability cap + FOX One drag + tail risk (Smartmatic trial later 2026) outweigh upside. Conviction down 1 point.

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$377.04
Current Price$59.11
Upside / Down+537.9%
P(Undervalued)100.0%
P(20%+ Up)100.0%
P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Bull Case
Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).

Bear Case
Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 16
Conviction: unchanged
FOXA Q2 FY26 (Dec 2025): Cable Holds Firm, TV Margin Squeeze, FOX One Burns Cash, Buybacks Accelerate

Cable EBITDA +4.6% YoY on pricing power. TV EBITDA -30% in Q2 as sports costs bite hard. FOX One streaming losses widening in Corp/Other (-$138M vs -$81M). Revenue +2% consolidated. $1.8B buyback in H...

sec_10qMar 3
Conviction: unchanged
FOXA Q2 FY26: Pricing Power Offsets MVPD Decline, but Profitability Pressures Loom

FOXA Q2: Revenue +3%, net income -30% from investment losses and cost pressures. Cable strong (EBITDA +6%), TV weak (EBITDA -6%) from sports inflation. MVPD decline offset by rate hikes. FOX One launc...