Stock at $1,204 is near the $1,200 stop trigger implied in prior notes. No target price set. Moat quality (ROIC 44.2%) is exceptional but position sizing and entry discipline are absent without a defined target. DCF FV $349 is meaningless for a royalty/franchise model but does indicate extreme valuation premium. Without a thesis for what drives next 20%+ re-rating, this is neutral at best.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
33.9%/yr
±3.7% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
29.9%/yr
±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Housing market recovery unlocks the full FICO mortgage pricing cycle (2x'd in 2026). ROIC 44% well above WACC — capital-light compounder. B2B software scoring growing +29%. If housing recovers, multiple expands fast.
Housing suppressed by 7%+ mortgage rates — biggest near-term volume driver stalled. Price at ~,300+ already pricing in recovery. Regulatory risk on scoring monopoly (CFPB attention). Valuation premium stretched.
CFPB forced licensing competition; VantageScore gains material market share in mortgage originations; housing starts fall >20% sustained
Updated Mar 16
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