FDS: Lean Buy. DCF P(above)=100%, FV=$363 vs price $209. Analyst target $297 (+42%). 13x PE at historical lows. FactSet is a financial data moat with recurring subscription revenue. Near 52wk lows after significant drawdown from $475 highs. Missing: near-term catalysts unclear, sell-side desk spending potentially soft in weak trading environment.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-5.5%/yr
±2.9% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-4.9%/yr
±2.7% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Financial data infrastructure with near-100% client retention. DCF fair value vs current — deeply undervalued on fundamentals. March 31 earnings as upgrade catalyst: beat + maintained guidance = conv 8 and + target.
Decelerating organic growth (6% vs prior 8%+), margin compression from acquisitions, Bloomberg/Refinitiv/S&P competition intensifying, high valuation for a slow-growth data business.
Organic growth drops below 4%, enterprise client churn accelerates, earnings miss + guidance cut on March 31
Updated Mar 24
FDS earnings Tuesday — beat would trigger conv upgrade to 8 and add shares. RBC cut PT to $243 from $320 but still meaningful upside.
Q1 solid on organic growth (6%) and user/client additions, but operating margin compressed 200 bps YoY due to acquisition amortization and tech spending. IT controls weak but remediation in progress. ...