Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
28.6%/yr
±5.5% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
28.4%/yr
±3.6% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally.
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Strong execution on share gains (70% of growth) and FMI platform but tariff pricing (170-200 bps) will fade in 2026. PMI <50 for 10/12 months signals weak macro. Gross margin compressed from customer ...