FAST

Fastenal Company
IndustrialsIndustrial DistributionNASDAQ
$45.48
+$0.40 (0.88%)today
Conviction
0/ 10
Fair Value$44.99
Upside-1.07%
Signal0
Market Cap$51.8B
52W Range$35.31–$50.63
Next EarningsApr 13

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$18.19
Current Price$44.95
Upside / Down-59.5%
P(Undervalued)0.0%
P(20%+ Up)0.0%
P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

28.6%/yr

±5.5% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

28.4%/yr

±3.6% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally.

Trailing P/E41.4x
Forward P/E33.4x
P/S6.3x
EPS (TTM)$1.09
Analyst Target$44.99
Analyst Upside-1.1%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 2
Conviction: unchanged
FAST 10-K: Share Gains Masking Macro Weakness, Tariff Pricing Will Normalize

Strong execution on share gains (70% of growth) and FMI platform but tariff pricing (170-200 bps) will fade in 2026. PMI <50 for 10/12 months signals weak macro. Gross margin compressed from customer ...