EXR

Extra Space Storage Inc.

Real EstateREIT - IndustrialNASDAQ

$130.85

-$0.97 (-0.74%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$152.85

Upside+16.81%

Signal10.09

Market Cap$28.4B

52W Range$121.03–$155.19

Next EarningsApr 28

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$104.97

Current Price$128.96

Upside / Down-18.6%

P(Undervalued)13.2%

P(20%+ Up)1.3%

P(15%+ Down)59.8%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

13.2% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

16.0%/yr

±3.6% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

16.1%/yr

±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Bull Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).

Bear Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 2

Conviction: unchanged

EXR 2025 10-K: Occupancy Decline, Cost Inflation Pressuring Same-Store NOI

Extra Space's 2025 results show modest revenue growth (+3.3% property rental) masking deteriorating fundamentals. Same-store occupancy fell 70bps to 92.6% YE, driving NOI decline of -1.7% despite acqu...