DCF P(above)=100%, FV=$569 vs price $243 — huge apparent upside. BUT prior target was $275 (13% upside from $243). No analyst target available. DCF is almost certainly using wrong assumptions (insurance P&C comps notoriously misfit by generic DCF). Below 200dma. Without ability to justify the massive DCF divergence, must lower conviction. No thesis on file for why ERIE is a buy at these levels.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-6.4%/yr
±3.2% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-5.7%/yr
±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Premium growth 8.9% to B, but new business -17.8%, retention 88.4% down from 90.4%. Exchange AM Best downgraded A+→A Sept 2025. Net income -6.8% despite premium growth. Investment income +22.4%. Thesi...