EME

EMCOR Group, Inc.

IndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionNASDAQ

$708.37

-$34.52 (-4.87%)today

Conviction

7/ 10

Fair Value$870

Upside+22.82%

Signal15.97

Market Cap$31.4B

52W Range$320.89–$835

Next EarningsApr 29

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$563.32

Current Price$732.89

Upside / Down-23.1%

P(Undervalued)6.6%

P(20%+ Up)0.1%

P(15%+ Down)72.7%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

6.6% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

15.9%/yr

±5.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

18.0%/yr

±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Bull Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).

Bear Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

EME FY2025 10-K Deep Read: Record Revenue, AI/Data Center Demand Intact, Miller Electric Integration

FY2025 record revenues of $16.99B (+16.6%), gross margin 19.3% (+30bps), op margin 10.1% (includes $144.9M UK gain). Organic growth ~7.9%, Electrical segment +52% (incl. $1.11B Miller Electric). AI/da...

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

EMCOR FY2025: Record Revenue, Margin Expansion, AI/Data Center Tailwinds

Record revenues, margin expansion, AI/data center driven. Industrial services weak. Valuation elevated but thesis intact if capex cycle continues.