Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
7.5% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
4.5%/yr
±5.1% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
24.8%/yr
±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.
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Q2 FY2026 shows margin recovery from PRGP + Mainland China strength (+11%), but makeup segment stalling (-1% CC) and tariff headwinds create offset. FY2025 impairments (M) create tough YoY comp, but u...