DLTR

Dollar Tree, Inc.
Consumer DefensiveDiscount StoresNASDAQ
$106.82
-$1.43 (-1.34%)today
Conviction
6/ 10
Fair Value$125.26
Upside+17.26%
Signal10.36
Market Cap$21.0B
52W Range$61.87–$142.40
Next EarningsJun 3

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$172.10
Current Price$107.00
Upside / Down+60.8%
P(Undervalued)93.1%
P(20%+ Up)82.7%
P(15%+ Down)2.4%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

93.1% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-2.0%/yr

±5.7% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

1.3%/yr

±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Bull Case
Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).

Bear Case
Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 3
Conviction: unchanged
Q3 2025 Fundamentals: Solid Growth, Tariff Headwinds Manageable

Solid Q3 fundamentals with +11% YTD revenue growth and stable-to-expanding margins despite tariff headwinds. Management execution on pricing and cost mitigation is credible but near-term uncertainty r...