Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
11.6% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
7.3%/yr
±7.1% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
4.8%/yr
±2.6% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
D.R.
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DHI Q1 FY2026: Pre-tax income -28% YoY to M; home sales margin compressed 230 bps to 20.4%. Affordability crisis driving incentive escalation and price declines despite stable order volume. Earnings p...