DHI

D.R. Horton, Inc.
Consumer CyclicalResidential ConstructionNASDAQ
$137.37
+$0.12 (0.09%)today
Conviction
0/ 10
Fair Value$160.13
Upside+16.57%
Signal0
Market Cap$38.6B
52W Range$110.44–$184.55
Next EarningsApr 21

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$101.29
Current Price$134.19
Upside / Down-24.5%
P(Undervalued)11.6%
P(20%+ Up)1.6%
P(15%+ Down)68.6%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

11.6% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

7.3%/yr

±7.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

4.8%/yr

±2.6% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

D.R.

Trailing P/E12.1x
Forward P/E10.8x
P/S1.2x
EPS (TTM)$10.99
Analyst Target$160.13
Analyst Upside16.6%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10qMar 2
Conviction: unchanged
DHI Q1 FY2026: Margin Compression, Affordability Crisis Deepening

DHI Q1 FY2026: Pre-tax income -28% YoY to M; home sales margin compressed 230 bps to 20.4%. Affordability crisis driving incentive escalation and price declines despite stable order volume. Earnings p...