DDOG

Datadog, Inc.

TechnologySoftware - ApplicationNASDAQ

$122.75

-$7.96 (-6.49%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$182.43

Upside+48.62%

Signal0

Market Cap$41.0B

52W Range$81.63–$201.69

Next EarningsMay 5

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$37.33

Current Price$114.48

Upside / Down-67.4%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

37.9%/yr

±2.0% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

32.4%/yr

±3.4% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

Datadog, Inc.

Trailing P/E373.8x

Forward P/E43.8x

P/S12.0x

EPS (TTM)$0.31

Analyst Target$182.43

Analyst Upside48.6%

No Eagle analysis yet. Request a full review including conviction score, bull/bear cases, and thesis.

Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

analysisMar 17

Conviction: unchanged

DDOG: AI Observability Inflection — Record Q4, Land-and-Expand Compounding, Premium Deserved

Datadog's Q4 2025 was a blowout: revenue +29% YoY ($953M), 2026 guidance $4.06-4.10B (+19% midpoint), shares +16% in a single session. The AI observability thesis is validating — LLM monitoring, AI ag...

sec_10kMar 2

Conviction: unchanged

FY2025 10-K Analysis: Revenue Deceleration amid Product Expansion and AI Investments

DDOG FY2025 shows 27.6% revenue growth (.43B), down from 26% prior year. Core thesis intact (unified observability platform, strong NRR) but facing growth deceleration, customer concentration risk in ...