CNC

Centene Corporation

HealthcareHealthcare PlansNASDAQ

$32.58

-$3.23 (-9.90%)today

Conviction

3/ 10

Fair Value$43.18

Upside+32.52%

Signal9.76

Market Cap$15.6B

52W Range$25.08–$66.03

Next EarningsApr 28

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$2383.32

Current Price$32.00

Upside / Down+7347.9%

P(Undervalued)100.0%

P(20%+ Up)100.0%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

0.1%/yr

±12.4% · revenue growth to justify current price

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Bull Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).

Bear Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).

Research Feed

analysisMar 26

Conviction: unchanged

CNC Q4 2025 & 2026 Guidance: Repricing In Progress, Medicaid Revenue -B Headwind Persists

Q4 2025 trends consistent with expectations, slightly favorable in Marketplace. 2026 guidance: adj EPS >.00 at ~11x on stock; Medicaid revenue declining B from redetermination; HBR improving 60 bps o...

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

CNC FY2025 10-K: Medicaid Acuity & Marketplace Morbidity Crisis

Centene faces convergence of structural headwinds: Medicaid member acuity rising, Marketplace risk pool deteriorating, Medicare pricing inadequate, balance sheet impaired. Corrective pricing actions u...