CMS

CMS Energy Corporation

UtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricNASDAQ

$77.44

+$2.93 (3.78%)today

Conviction

4/ 10

Fair Value$79.62

Upside+2.81%

Signal1.12

Market Cap$23.8B

52W Range$67.71–$78.88

Next EarningsApr 23

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 9:22 AM6→4conviction-rescore

CMS Energy: DCF P(above)=1.3%, FV=$22 vs target $68 and current price ~$70. DCF is screaming overvalued — only 1.3% probability of being above current price. Regulated Michigan utility trading at premium multiples. Cannot justify 6 or higher with this signal. Downgrade to 4 (Avoid): DCF unambiguously overvalued, no thesis for multiple expansion in rate-regulated utility at elevated rates.

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 58% valid

Fair Value$21.46

Current Price$76.21

Upside / Down-71.8%

P(Undervalued)1.8%

P(20%+ Up)0.4%

P(15%+ Down)95.4%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

1.8% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

22.4%/yr

±9.2% · revenue growth to justify current price

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Bull Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).

Bear Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

CMS Energy 2025 10-K: Regulated Utility Transformation & Clean Energy Transition

Regulated Michigan utility with 6.8M customer base executing clean energy transition. Revenue .5B, margin profile stable, significant debt load typical for utilities. Moat: regional monopoly. Key risk...