CME

CME Group Inc.

Financial ServicesFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesNASDAQ

$293.77

-$14.38 (-4.90%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$306.86

Upside+4.45%

Signal0

Market Cap$108.0B

52W Range$248.53–$329.16

Next EarningsApr 22

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$142.08

Current Price$293.78

Upside / Down-51.6%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

25.8%/yr

±3.9% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

14.2%/yr

±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide.

Trailing P/E26.7x

Forward P/E23.4x

P/S16.6x

EPS (TTM)$11.16

Analyst Target$306.86

Analyst Upside4.5%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 1

Conviction: unchanged

CME Group FY2025 10-K: 4th Consecutive Record Year — Moat Intact, Valuation Full

CME posted record FY2025 results: .51B revenue (+6.5%), net income .1B, adj. EPS .20 (+15.4%), record ADV of 28.1M contracts (+6%). Business model continues to compound on scale and regulatory tailwin...