Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
37.8%/yr
±2.3% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
50.9%/yr
±4.0% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Ciena Corporation, a network technology company, provides hardware, software, and services for various network operators in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Japan, and India.
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Ciena delivered exceptional FY2025 results (revenue +19% YoY to .8B) driven by unprecedented AI and cloud capex. Backlog surged to .0B (+138% YoY). However, gross margin compressed 80 bps to 42.0%, wi...