CIEN

Ciena Corporation
TechnologyCommunication EquipmentNASDAQ
$437.90
+$59.83 (13.66%)today
Conviction
0/ 10
Fair Value$335.94
Upside-23.28%
Signal0
Market Cap$51.6B
52W Range$49.21–$446.89
Next EarningsJun 4

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$92.21
Current Price$401.61
Upside / Down-77.0%
P(Undervalued)0.0%
P(20%+ Up)0.0%
P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

37.8%/yr

±2.3% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

50.9%/yr

±4.0% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

Ciena Corporation, a network technology company, provides hardware, software, and services for various network operators in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Japan, and India.

Trailing P/E232.9x
Forward P/E44.3x
P/S10.1x
EPS (TTM)$1.57
Analyst Target$335.94
Analyst Upside-23.3%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 2
Conviction: unchanged
Ciena FY2025 10-K: Exceptional AI-Driven Momentum, Margin Compression Risk

Ciena delivered exceptional FY2025 results (revenue +19% YoY to .8B) driven by unprecedented AI and cloud capex. Backlog surged to .0B (+138% YoY). However, gross margin compressed 80 bps to 42.0%, wi...