Consumer staples — DCF P(above)=35.9% with FV=$90. Church & Dwight is a consistent compounder (Arm & Hammer, OxiClean, Waterpik) but premium valuation limits upside. P(above) 35.9% and FV $90 vs old target $99 suggests fairly valued at best. Neutral.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
42.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
4.3%/yr
±4.5% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-1.9%/yr
±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
CHD executing strategic portfolio shift toward faster-growing value/premium lines (Touchland, BATISTE, HERO, THERABREATH). Exit of slower-growth SKUs (Flawless, VMS) de-risks margin profile. Strong br...