Downgraded from 7 to 5. Analyst consensus target BELOW current price ($287 vs $293 = -2%). DCF P(above current) only 17.1%. Both signals say overvalued. Well-run exchange with VIX franchise but no upside at this price. Above fair value = avoid.
Falcon re-read of FY2025 10-K. Prior conviction 6 was too conservative given margin expansion and balance sheet strength.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
29.1% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
9.3%/yr
±3.7% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
0.1%/yr
±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Falcon re-read confirms strong FY2025: net revenue +17.8% to .43B, Q4 +28%. EBITDA margin 69.2% (+610bps). Net cash M. Index options ADV +35%, zero-DTE now 60% of SPX volume. 2026 guidance conservativ...
CBOE executing strategic realignment to focus on core derivatives and U.S. equities franchises. Business heavily dependent (68% of revenues) on exclusive S&P 500 and proprietary VIX licenses—a major v...