CAT

Caterpillar Inc.

IndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachineryNASDAQ

$719.29

+$26.62 (3.70%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$736.21

Upside+2.35%

Signal0

Market Cap$312.3B

52W Range$267.30–$789.81

Next EarningsApr 30

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$91.26

Current Price$695.40

Upside / Down-86.9%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

37.4%/yr

±2.7% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

43.1%/yr

±3.6% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

Caterpillar Inc.

Trailing P/E35.6x

Forward P/E24.1x

P/S4.6x

EPS (TTM)$18.78

Analyst Target$736.21

Analyst Upside2.4%

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kFeb 28

Conviction: unchanged

CAT FY2025 10-K: Transition Year Masks Transformational Backlog Surge

FY2025 revenue +4% YoY to $67.6B but EPS fell 15% ($22.05→$18.81) as operating margin contracted 370bps to 16.5%. The story is the backlog: $51.2B at Dec 31, 2025 vs $30.0B a year prior (+70.7%), larg...